As one of Xi Jinping’s most important advisers leaves the scene, we consider possible successors
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, addresses a ceremony to present the Chinese Government Friendship Award to foreign experts, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 30, 2022. source: Xinhua Yonhap
In april 2019 the Americans thought they were close to ending their trade war with China. They had a draft agreement that would oblige China to strengthen its intellectual property rights and buy more American crops, among other things. And they had confidence in their negotiating partner, Liu He, China’s “special envoy” (pictured). Fluent in English, educated at Harvard and committed to reform, he was “frankly, one of the most respected men anywhere in the world”, according to Donald Trump, then America’s president.
But the Americans overestimated Mr Liu’s influence, according to the book “Superpower Showdown” by Bob Davis and Lingling Wei. “Simply because Liu hadn’t said no to us proposals didn’t mean Beijing had said yes.” When the Politburo Standing Committee, the Communist Party’s top decision-making body, rejected the draft deal, the Americans were surprised.
The episode illustrates the strengths and limits of Mr Liu, China’s economic “tsar”, who is likely to retire from his position on the Politburo at the party congress in October. One of China’s four deputy prime ministers, he also plays a leading role in two bodies set up by Xi Jinping, China’s ruler, to strengthen his grip on economic policymaking: the Central Commission for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms and the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission (cfeac).
Mr Liu is respected by economists, enjoyed a “trusted relationship” with his American counterparts, and has reportedly known Mr Xi since childhood. (They both grew up in Beijing as the privileged sons of party officials.) It is hard to imagine any economic policymaker in China having a better combination of credentials. His departure is therefore a pity.
Who could be his successor? If he himself could choose, he might pick Han Wenxiu, who assists him in the cfeac. Mr Han has a doctorate in finance and spent a year at Oxford University. He has tried to allay fears about Mr Xi’s pursuit of “common prosperity” (it does not entail “killing the rich to help the poor”) and technological self-reliance (which is not “a return to traditional self-sufficiency”).
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